Industry chain:Downstream needs to be vigorously driven to drive the development of downstream industrial chain 

Mobile robots (AGVs) are a type of industrial robot. It is controlled by computer and has the functions of mobile, automatic navigation, multi-sensor control, network interaction, etc. The most important use in actual production is to carry. It can be said that as long as there is a place for handling, there is a possibility of application of mobile robot.

The mobile robot (AGV) is a kind of industrial robot and has the same industrial chain structure as industrial robots. The upstream is a robot component manufacturer.

This part is the core of the industry chain and accounts for the vast majority of costs in robotics. The middle reaches are robot manufacturing and system integration companies. Downstream includes automotive, 3C electronics, logistics and other application industries.

The current domestic mobile robot market has a high localization rate of over 80%. In the domestic market where foreign products occupy the mainstream in the field of robotics, this localization rate of the mobile robot market is unique. The high localization rate is due to the obvious price performance of domestic manufacturers.

Upstream: core components depend on foreign manufacturers, domestic companies need further development

The most important cost of industrial robot products is concentrated on core components such as reducers, servo systems and motion controllers. The cost of the reducer, servo system and motion controller is more than 75%.

Therefore, from this perspective, the core of the industrial robot industry chain is the upstream robot component manufacturer.

At present, most of the core components of robot products in the domestic market come from foreign robot component manufacturers, and the number of enterprises using domestic robot component manufacturers is small.

There are two reasons for this:

1. The core parts and components such as reducer are difficult to develop, and the required technical accumulation is relatively deep. Therefore, there are qualified domestic companies with the ability to design and develop core parts and components with low technical maturity.

The robot body manufacturing company in the middle of 2. is suspicious of the product quality of domestic robot parts suppliers, and adopts foreign robot parts supplier products in order to gain market trust for market share.

In the mobile robot (AGV), a segment with a high localization rate, the robotic ontology manufacturing companies in the middle reaches are still unable to escape such problems.

The mobile robot (AGV) is mainly composed of three parts: drive, system and guidance. Among them, the core components of the drive controller, system, and excited navigation sensor are still the world of foreign brands, although foreign companies can not achieve AGV to China. The direct monopoly of the market, but can take advantage of key technologies and core components to form constraints and constraints on Chinese enterprises.

Therefore, in the long run, if you want to make a difference in the field of mobile robots, domestic companies need to continue to exert their strength on the upstream robot components.

Midstream: "Personalized service + high cost performance" to promote rapid industrial development

The middle of the mobile robot (AGV) mainly includes two parts: robot body manufacturing and system integration.

At present, the domestic demand side is highly polarized, including large enterprises such as Huawei, Dongfeng Motor, and Jingdong, as well as small enterprises with annual sales of over 100 million.

Among them, a large number of orders originate from the latter, and their demand for mobile robots (AGV) is four or five, as little as one or two, and the application scenarios and specific requirements are different, and their own transformation ability is weak, requiring midstream manufacturers. Provide them with a comprehensive follow-up service.

Therefore, the mid-stream domestic robotic ontology manufacturers who can provide personalized services to the demand side are very popular among these demanders.

2013年至2018年，中国AGV机器人销量从最初的2439台增长至2018年的18000台(估计值)，产业发展速度极快。

国产机器人具有一定的性价比。国外的AGV产品价格普遍在80-100万/台，而国内的AGV产品价格普遍在40-70万元/台，比国外低50%左右。

In 2018, the price war trend of the mobile robot industry did not stop. Some companies even launched the 9.8 million forklift AGV, which is still the main strategy of domestic mobile robots.

Downstream: Declining demographic dividends and emerging areas have created high demand for AGV

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate in China has been at a historical low for a long time in the past two decades, and there has been a further downward trend in the past two years.

Industries that originally enjoyed the demographic dividend brought about by the high birth rate in China, such as 3C Electronics, Logistics, and Automobile Manufacturing, will all face the impact of the decline in the demographic dividend caused by the long-term downturn in the birth rate.

Therefore, as a major alternative to human resources, the demand for mobile robots (AGVs) has become increasingly strong. The demand for mobile robots (AGVs) on the market today mainly comes from small and micro enterprises that need to reduce the labor costs of handling.

At the same time, the rise of emerging industries has further driven the demand for mobile robots.

With the development of e-commerce, the work intensity of the logistics industry has been greatly improved, and higher requirements have been placed on the efficiency of handling.

Taking the data of 2014 year as an example, in the case that mobile robots and other equipment were not popular at the time, after the important sales activities such as Double Eleven, the daily handling weight of the courier porters exceeded 1 tons, and the daily working hours reached ten hours; On average, you need to wait for 6-7 days after placing an order online, which is nearly twice as long as waiting for purchases on an inactive day.

In order to better optimize the consumer's consumption experience, major e-commerce companies have introduced various machines and equipment, and strive to promote logistics in the direction of intelligence and automation.

And mobile robots have naturally become the first choice for intelligent automation of logistics.

The unique advantages of mobile robot (AGV) in automation, flexibility and security make mobile robot (AGV) the best choice for intelligent and automated logistics.

Industry space and trend analysis 

Industry space analysis: multi-field application prospects are broad, and over 10 billion markets can be expected

From the application scenario, mobile robots are mainly used to carry scenes, and there is a possibility of mobile robot applications where there is a place to move.

From the application field, the automotive industry, 3C electronics, tobacco industry, and logistics industry are the most widely used and most promising mobile robots.

From the perspective of future market size, the mobile robot (AGV) market is expected to reach 140 billion. According to the actual development of China's mobile robot (AGV) market, 2018 China's mobile robot (AGV) sales volume is 29600, and the market size reaches 42.5 billion.

Due to the demand for forklift replacement at the demand side and the demand for storage robots, it is conservatively estimated that the compound growth rate of mobile robot (AGV) sales in the next five years will be maintained at around 25%, and the product brought about by technological advancement will be about 5% per year. The price reduction level, in order to calculate China's mobile robot market will reach 140 billion yuan in five years, the industry development space is huge.

Future mobile robot industry development trend

Product features trend: cost-effective and easy to use

China's domestic industrial robot market is showing a relatively obvious "long tail characteristic". Except for 3C and other fast-rising markets, it has a certain extra. Other application markets have small customers, poor financial strength, low application level and extremely scattered geographical distribution. The overall number is huge.

Such customer characteristics also determine that most of the customers are price-sensitive customers, and their own transformation capabilities are poor, requiring midstream manufacturers to give a slightly adjusted product can be put into use.

Therefore, if the midstream manufacturers want to occupy more market share, the products produced must be cost-effective and easy to use.

Product technology trends: outdoor AGV technology, "big data" technology mature

At present, the application cases of mobile robots (AGV) are mainly concentrated in indoor environments, such as smart warehouses and factory workshops. But in fact, there are a lot of processes in the handling process that are carried out outdoors, such as the "last mile" of express delivery and port cargo throughput.

If the "last mile" of mobile is currently difficult due to the immature development of navigation system technology, port cargo throughput is expected to become the most extensive field of outdoor AGV technology application in the future.

In 2016, the cargo throughput of China's above-scale ports is 118.3 billion tons. If the huge throughput can be intelligently transported by mobile robots (AGV), the work efficiency will be greatly improved.

In addition to the gradual maturity of outdoor AGV technology, the application of Internet technology to mobile robots (AGV) will further enhance work efficiency.

Through the medium of the Internet, the production management system can collect the operational data of the robots for aggregation, thereby obtaining "big data."

By analyzing the big data, you can know the robot's utilization rate, production information, fault information, etc., and adjust the production method in real time according to the actual situation, thereby further improving production efficiency.

Competitive pattern analysis 

Analysis of the competition pattern of foreign mobile robots: AGV products in different regions have their own characteristics

Compared with the current characteristics of foreign mobile robot (AGV) products, the characteristics of mobile robots (AGV) in different regions are different.

Foreign mobile robot (AGV) manufacturers can be divided into two categories: European and American manufacturers and Japanese manufacturers.

(1) European and American manufacturers: Due to the strong load capacity of Europe and the United States, the load capacity of the products can reach 60000kg (60 tons). The load capacity of some advanced heavy-duty mobile robots (AGV) has reached 150 tons, and the technology is quite complicated.

The high labor costs in Europe and the United States also make European and American manufacturers pursue the automation and intelligence of AGV in production, with perfect product functions and advanced technology.

In order to adopt modular design, reduce design cost, and improve the standards of mass production, AGV in Europe and America abandoned the pursuit of appearance and shape, and produced it in the form of assembly of large parts.

In addition, industrial plants in Europe and America are more environmentally friendly, and the application of mobile robots (AGV) is extremely common.

Currently in Europe, the price of a laser-guided fork-type AGV is about 10 10,000 euros, which is equivalent to 3 forklift workers 1 years (AGV can work 24 hours, equivalent to 3 class).

In other words, investing in 1 AGV in Europe can basically recover the investment within one year. The geographical advantage and product adaptability determine that the main customers of European and American manufacturers are European and American companies.

The technical level and market recognition of European and American manufacturers are also the highest in the world. The top 16 manufacturers in Europe and the United States occupy the main seats.

(2) Japanese manufacturer: Japan also introduced AGV in Europe and America in the 1970s. Since Japan is mainly based on high-end light industry, such as electronics and other technology industries, Japanese manufacturers have improved the localization of AGV, which greatly simplifies the technical complexity and complexity of the vehicle body, and the cost is relatively low.

The AGV produced by Japanese manufacturers is fully integrated with simple production applications (generally a single path, fixed process), which is only used for handling, does not emphasize the automatic loading and unloading function, and uses the tape guiding method in guiding.

The ultimate product produced by Japanese manufacturers is AGC (AutomatedGuidedCart). The low cost once made AGC popular in the East Asian market.

At present, many companies in China are imitating the characteristics of Japanese manufacturers to reduce the cost of AGV products and increase their penetration rate.

Domestic upstream competition pattern: the localization process continues to advance, and the low-end market is expected to break through

Precision reducer: localization gradually started

Mobile robots (AGVs) generally use RV reducers, which have large transmission ratio, high transmission efficiency, high motion accuracy, low backlash, low vibration, high rigidity and high reliability. They can be applied to high torque. Under heavy load conditions (20kg or more).

At present, the domestic RV reducer market is monopolized by Nabtesco, Japan, and the localization rate is still less than 5%.

Nabtesco is composed of two Japanese multinational companies, Teijin Machinery Co., Ltd. and Nabok Co., Ltd., and is currently the world's largest manufacturer of precision reducers. The global market share is 60%, and most of the world's robot manufacturers include The “Four Great Family” purchased RV reducers from Nabo, and its RV reducer market share reached 90%.

In recent years, domestic manufacturers have gradually achieved technological breakthroughs, and the performance gap between domestic RV reducers and foreign products has been shrinking. The key technical indicators of precision reducer mainly include torsional stiffness, transmission accuracy and transmission efficiency.

Compared with the key technical indicators of precision reducers at home and abroad, it is found that domestic brands are close to Japanese brands in some indicators.

RV reducers gradually began to make domestic substitutions. Domestic manufacturers such as Shanghai Electromechanical, Zhongduide, Nantong Zhenkang and Shuanghuan Transmission have achieved mass production, but the localization rate is still less than 5%.

Sensors: Manufacturers are small and lack critical technologies. It is difficult to break through the use of mobile robots (AGVs), including laser sensors, vision sensors, infrared sensors and ultrasonic sensors.

Each of these four types of sensors has advantages and disadvantages, and the combined use effect is good.

China's sensor manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, and gradually form a regional spatial layout dominated by central cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Shenyang and Xi'an.

The Yangtze River Delta region: With Shanghai, Wuxi, and Nanjing as the center, it has gradually formed a relatively complete sensor production system and industrial support including heat sensitivity, magnetic sensitivity, image, weighing, photoelectric, temperature, and gas sensitivity.

At present, the size of sensor manufacturers in China is generally small, and it is difficult to break through the monopoly of foreign brands due to the following three aspects:

(1) Lack of core technology and basic capabilities, and weak innovation capabilities.

The gap between sensors in high-precision, high-sensitivity analysis, component analysis and special applications is huge. Nearly 100% of high-end sensor products are imported from abroad. 90% chips rely on foreign countries, and there are no new sensors, new devices and new materials in China. R&D and industrialization capabilities.

(2) The common key technology has not really broken through.

There are big gaps in design technology, packaging technology, and equipment technology. The reliability of domestic sensors is less than 1-2 orders of magnitude compared with similar foreign products. The sensor package has not yet formed a series, standard and unified interface. The development and production of sensor technology equipment is monopolized by foreign countries.

(3) The industrial structure is unreasonable, and the varieties, specifications, and series are incomplete, and the technical indicators are not high.

Domestic sensor products often do not form a series, and the products have a certain gap between the measurement accuracy, temperature characteristics, response time, stability, reliability and other indicators.

Control system: cost-effective to help domestic brands to force the low-end market

In China's industrial robot controller market, the market share of the four major families is basically the same as its share in the ontology market, and the sum of the ratios is 52%.

The market share of domestic independent brand ontology market is 32.8%, while in the controller market, it only accounts for less than 16%. Domestic enterprise controllers have not yet formed market competitiveness, and some of the controllers of the main body manufacturers need to be outsourced.

However, a number of representative enterprises have emerged in the development process, such as Huichuan Technology, Eston, Xinshida, Gugao, Xinsong, Huazhong CNC and other enterprises have advantages.

The gap between domestic robot controllers and foreign products is mainly in the software part, that is, the control algorithm and the ease of use of the secondary development platform.

The development of control systems involves more core technologies, including hardware design, underlying software technology, and upper-level functional application software. With the accumulation of technology and application experience, the hardware platform used by domestic robot controllers has little difference with foreign countries.

However, due to the lack of platform foundation, the controllers manufactured by domestic manufacturers are mostly closed structures, which have shortcomings such as poor openness, poor software independence, poor fault tolerance, poor scalability, and lack of network functions. It is difficult to adapt to the requirements of intelligence and flexibility.

The controllers of domestic industrial robot manufacturers mainly have price advantages. With the rapid development of microelectronics technology, the performance of processors is getting higher and higher, the cost is lower and lower, and the cost-effective microprocessor makes it possible to develop low-cost, high-performance industrial robot controllers.

The price of KUKA and ABB controllers is 5.8 and 6.8, respectively, while the high price is only 6. The domestic controller is cost-effective and can capture the market demand for general-purpose robots that do not require high precision.

For mobile robots (AGVs), it is a good choice to reduce costs by purchasing domestic controllers where production flexibility is relatively low.

Mid-game competition pattern:

China's mobile robot (AGV) has a high localization rate, but the market concentration is relatively scattered, which can be said to enter the era of competition.

Every mobile robot (AGV) manufacturer has its own unique advantages.

Since the beginning of 2015, the mobile robot (AGV) industry has entered a period of rapid development, and there are large variables in the industry. Relatively speaking, enterprises with deeper technical accumulation and more unique functional development may benefit more from the industry changes.

In summary,In the field of mobile robots (AGV) we are optimistic about companies that are deeply rooted in core technologies.

The foreign brand products in the upstream industry chain are expensive, and the price advantage of domestic core components is obvious. If the domestic core components can gradually catch up with foreign products in terms of performance, then under the premise of huge price advantage, domestic core component manufacturers will benefit greatly. If the robotic body manufacturer in the middle reaches can make breakthroughs in software services, it will continue to benefit.

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